Market Outlooks
Chart of the Week: S&P 500 earnings estimates
July 16 2026
S&P 500 earnings estimates have been revised higher into this reporting season, a departure from the typical pattern of analysts trimming numbers as the quarter progresses. Strong revisions are usually read as a bullish signal, and often are.
But history asks a follow-up question: what tends to happen to forward returns after revisions reach this kind of extreme?
In this week’s Chart of the Week, I walk through what’s followed prior periods of unusually strong earnings revisions, and why strong earnings alone haven’t always translated into strong forward returns.
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